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Aligos Therapeutics, Inc. (ALGS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 headline EPS dramatically beat consensus due to a non-cash $61.5M gain from the change in fair value of 2023 common warrants, yielding basic EPS of $5.12 vs S&P Global consensus of $(2.98); revenue of $0.31M missed the $0.50M consensus .
  • Operating performance remained loss-making with a $(19.2)M loss from operations on de minimis revenue; R&D and G&A declined YoY on lower third-party and legal spend .
  • Balance sheet strengthened by a $105M private placement, lifting cash, cash equivalents and investments to $137.9M and extending runway into 2H26; Phase 2 for ALG-000184 in CHB expected to start mid-2025 with interim data in 2026 and topline in 2027 .
  • Near-term catalysts include Phase 2 initiation/dosing for ALG-000184 (mid-2025) and multiple medical meeting disclosures for ALG-000184 and ALG-055009 (MASH) that reinforce “best-in-class” potential and partnering optionality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong financing and runway: Closed a ~$105M private placement; cash, cash equivalents and investments rose to $137.9M, funding operations into 2H26 .
  • Pipeline momentum in CHB: Extended dosing to 96 weeks in Phase 1, with sustained HBV DNA suppression and no viral breakthrough; Phase 2 B-SUPREME study set to begin mid-2025 (interim 2026; topline 2027). CEO: “We are on track to begin dosing by mid-2025… data continue to support our belief that ALG-000184 has the potential to be first line standard of care” .
  • MASH asset performance/partnering: HERALD Phase 2a showed up to 46.2% placebo-adjusted median liver fat reduction and favorable tolerability; active partnering discussions ongoing with multinationals .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue miss and limited commercial scale: Q1 revenue of $0.31M vs $0.50M consensus*, with $0 collaboration revenue and small customer revenue base ; compares to $0.63M in Q4’24 .
  • Core operating losses persist: Loss from operations $(19.2)M on minimal revenue, underscoring reliance on financing/partnerships until late-stage data/readouts .
  • EPS quality: Basic EPS of $5.12 driven by non-operating, non-cash $61.5M warrant fair value gain; diluted EPS reported at $(2.11) due to accounting impacts, highlighting limited read-through to cash earnings .

Financial Results

Sequential comparison (Q3 2024 → Q4 2024 → Q1 2025)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue from Collaborations ($000s)$19 $23 $0
Revenue from Customers ($000s)$1,250 $606 $311
Loss from Operations ($000s)$(20,131) $(20,563) $(19,243)
Interest and Other Income (Loss), net ($000s)$963 $(788) $880
Change in FV of 2023/Common Warrants ($000s)N/A $(60,772) $61,494
Net Income (Loss) ($000s)$(19,259) $(82,150) $43,088
Basic EPS ($)$(3.07) $(13.08) $5.12
Diluted EPS ($)$(3.07) $(13.08) $(2.11)
R&D Expense ($000s)$16,774 $16,031 $14,502
G&A Expense ($000s)$4,626 $5,161 $5,052
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments (end of period, $000s)$74,922 $56,939 $137,861

Notes: Q3’24 “Change in FV of 2023/Common Warrants” not separately presented in the Q3 8-K P&L table; hence shown as N/A .

Year-over-Year (Q1 2024 → Q1 2025)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue from Collaborations ($000s)$292 $0
Revenue from Customers ($000s)$694 $311
Loss from Operations ($000s)$(22,046) $(19,243)
Interest and Other Income (Loss), net ($000s)$1,579 $880
Change in FV of 2023 Common Warrants ($000s)$(14,372) $61,494
Net Income (Loss) ($000s)$(34,863) $43,088
Basic EPS ($)$(5.58) $5.12
Diluted EPS ($)$(5.58) $(2.11)
R&D Expense ($000s)$16,366 $14,502
G&A Expense ($000s)$6,666 $5,052

Segment breakdown: Not applicable; the company reports as a single segment .

KPIs (select operating/financial items): See tables above for R&D, G&A, cash/investments, and warrant fair value impact .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash runwayMulti-periodThrough end of 2025 (as of Q3’24 PR) Into 2H 2026 (with Feb-2025 financing; reiterated Q1’25) Raised runway
ALG-000184 Phase 2 start2025“Begin in mid-2025” (Q4’24 PR) “On track to begin dosing by mid-2025” (Q1’25) Maintained/timing reiterated
ALG-000184 interim/topline2026–2027Not specified priorInterim 2026; topline 2027 (Q1’25) New timing disclosed
ALG-055009 funding path2025Exploring partnering/out-licensing (Q3’24, Q4’24) Continuing partnering discussions with multinationals (Q1’25) Maintained; discussions ongoing
ALG-097558 funding2025Externally funded, incl. NIH-supported work (Q3’24/Q4’24) Future development expected to be funded by external sources (Q1’25) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: An earnings call transcript was not located in our document set; themes reflect 8-K press release and Q1 2025 press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
R&D execution – ALG-000184 (CHB)Preparing for Phase 2; FDA/NMPA feedback supportive of sustained HBV DNA suppression as endpoint; ongoing Phase 1 to 96 weeks 96-week dosing completed; Phase 2 B-SUPREME to start mid-2025; interim 2026; topline 2027; robust antiviral activity and tolerability; no resistance observed Advancing per plan
MASH – ALG-055009Topline HERALD showed up to 46.2% placebo-adjusted liver fat reduction; Phase 2b enabling; partnering options under evaluation APASL/EASL data reinforce efficacy across subgroups (incl. GLP-1 users) and lipid improvements; partnering discussions continue Positive data; seeking partner
FinancingNo large raises in Q3; Q4 noted $56.9M YE cash $105M private placement in Feb 2025; cash/investments $137.9M; runway into 2H26 Strengthened
External collaborations (HBV, COVID)Amoytop collaboration; external funding paths for ALG-097558 noted Externally funded ALG-097558 development expected; NIAID DDI/BA study expected to dose 2Q25 Stable
Regulatory/clinical endpoints (CHB)Endpoint alignment progress (FDA/NMPA) Confirmed readiness for Phase 2 with defined primary endpoints for HBeAg+ and HBeAg− cohorts Clarified
Macro/tariffs/supply chainNot a focusNot a focusNeutral

Management Commentary

  • “We continued to make progress towards our corporate development plans… Over the past few months, we raised over $100M to begin our important Phase 2 study of ALG-000184… on track to begin dosing by mid-2025… These data continue to support our belief that ALG-000184 has the potential to be first line standard of care… Additionally, recent data… for ALG-055009… further demonstrated best-in-class potential. We are continuing our partnering discussions…” — Lawrence Blatt, Ph.D., M.B.A., Chairman, President & CEO .
  • “We are pleased to present preliminary data out to 96 weeks in our Phase 1 study of ALG-000184, which continues to demonstrate first-/best-in-class reductions in important HBV markers… the HERALD data… demonstrated robust reductions in liver fat… showing a potential role for ALG-055009 in combination with other therapies.” — Lawrence Blatt, PhD, MBA, Chairman, President & CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • No earnings call transcript located in our document set for Q1 2025; analysis is based on the 8-K press release and Q1 2025 press releases .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus:
MetricConsensusActual
EPS (Primary)$(2.98)*$5.12
Revenue ($)$0.50M*$0.311M
EPS – # of est.4*—
Revenue – # of est.4*—

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Interpretation: EPS materially beat due to the $61.5M non-cash gain from the change in fair value of 2023 common warrants, not improved operations; revenue modestly missed consensus amid minimal commercial activity .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The headline EPS beat is non-operational: a $61.5M non-cash warrant fair value gain turned net income positive; core operations remain in loss with $(19.2)M operating loss on $0.31M revenue .
  • Liquidity risk is mitigated near term: post-$105M raise, cash/investments of $137.9M fund into 2H26, covering the Phase 2 start for ALG-000184 .
  • Pipeline catalysts drive the equity story: ALG-000184 Phase 2 initiation/dosing mid-2025 (interim 2026, topline 2027) is the key value inflection; continued best-in-class profile and no resistance observed in Phase 1 underpin conviction .
  • Partnering optionality for ALG-055009: robust liver fat and lipid reductions with favorable tolerability broaden strategic paths; a partnership could alleviate funding needs and de-risk advancement .
  • Externally funded COVID protease (ALG-097558) limits cash burden while preserving upside optionality; NIAID DDI/BA study expected to start dosing 2Q25 .
  • Near-term trading catalysts: medical meetings (EASL May 7–10) with multiple abstracts, plus Phase 2 start updates; monitor newsflow cadence for sentiment shifts .
  • Estimate revisions likely: analysts may maintain minimal revenue expectations but adjust quality-of-earnings frameworks to reflect non-cash drivers; focus should remain on OPEX trajectory and cash runway while awaiting Phase 2 CHB progress .